Tracking Irene: Thursday Evening Hurricane Update

Key takeaways:

• The storm impacts our area Saturday night into Sunday
• Be prepared for at least 5 to 10 inches of rain, causing flooding
• Strong, sustained winds of 40 to 70 MPH are expected
• Flooding is likely and wind damage may cause power outages

5 P.M. Storm Details: Major Hurricane Irene is a Category 3 storm with peak sustained winds of 115 miles per hour. The storm is moving north-northwest at 13 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center just issued a Hurricane Watch for most of the New Jersey coast, but no watches have been issued for Connecticut just yet.

Tracking the storm: Irene is moving northward, approaching the North Carolina coast, as predicted. The storm will continue to move northward, making landfall across extreme eastern North Carolina. Before the storm reaches land, it could possibly strengthen to a very dangerous Category 4 storm. Anyone with interests from the mid-Atlantic coast up into New England need to follow this storm very closely.

This weekend: Although Friday looks to be the calm before the storm, things deteriorate by this weekend. The storm turns due north and races up the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday. This will spread gusty thunderstorms and very muggy air into our portion of Connecticut during the day on Saturday.

There is no doubt that heavy rains, flooding and severe thunderstorms will impact the area from Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The question comes down to the exact track.

Currently, the storm center is forecast to move along the eastern New Jersey coast. Interaction with land will cause the storm to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane before reaching New York City. If the storm takes this track, it would be a strong tropical storm as it passes over western Connecticut.

If the storm moves further inland, it would weaken even more before reaching our area. On the other hand, if the storm stays just offshore, the warm waters will keep Irene a hurricane with stronger winds as it hits Connecticut.

Stay tuned to Patch and local media outlets for further details. At this time, no watches are in effect for southwestern Connecticut and no evacuations have been ordered. More details will be outlined on Friday.

What to do to prepare: Below is a great article for some tips:

If you are planning on leaving the area or have supplies to pick up, it would be advised to get out on the roads on Friday. The weather starts to go downhill on Saturday and a lot of people will likely be out on the roads causing potential traffic tie-ups.

Comparing to previous storms:

• Hurricane Gloria (1985): This storm took a track just east of the New Jersey coast and slammed into Connecticut as a Category 1 hurricane. There was heavy rain and moderate wind damage
  

  The affects from Irene will likely be similar to what we saw from Gloria. The tracks are almost identical and although Irene is a stronger storm, it will likely weaken somewhat as it moves up the coast.
  

• Hurricane Floyd (1999): This storm took a track into North Carolina and then right along the New Jersey Coast. It hit Connecticut as a tropical storm. There was very heavy rainfall, widespread flooding and some wind damage.
  

  Irene is a stronger hurricane than Floyd as well, so the affects will likely be worse this time around than they were in 1999.

Just to our south: A significant storm surge is likely to affect the New Jersey coast, New York City, Long Island and the coastline of Connecticut. The current forecast has a Category 1 hurricane making landfall over western Long Island and passing into western Connecticut. This will be the worst storm that the area has seen since Hurricane Gloria and has the potential to be worse if it stays over the warm waters just east of New Jersey. The impacts will be major to severe, given the property values across this area and the fact that millions of people reside there.

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