If NO Wins, All of Monroe Loses

First, the Mill Rate....

Yes, the mill rate is projected to go past 30 with this budget.  We get it.  We don't like it either.  Everyone's talking about it.  But here's a little dose of reality on that point.  We're in the same boat as our neighbors.  Really.

Newtown's projected mill rate for their budget is 33.7. Trumbull's is 30.71 for this year. Easton's is 29.1 this year, just a shave off of ours this year.

People will pay more for their homes if they see value. If you're looking at Trumbull, Newtown and Monroe for a home, as many who move here do, you'll find the mill rates all very similar. If Monroe becomes significantly different than our neighbors (both will offer Full Day K next year, for example), you'll find our property values decrease.

Oh, and there's Honeywell...

Most important Bottom Line:  Zero increase in cost to taxpayers.  The project is paid out of projected savings from the energy upgrades performed.  Honeywell guarantees that if the energy savings don't meet projections, they will make up the difference.

In other words, no matter what, we'll be paying for energy over the next ten years.  Doesn't it make sense to pay the same amount and get a bunch of energy saving upgrades?

If you want the numbers, here's a rough breakdown:

• Lease is ten years total @ roughly 300K per year
• There is also a four year, $100K per year lease payment on a no interest loan
• So, for the first four years, we need to save $400K per year to make the payments, and then $300K for the six years after that
• Honeywell projects savings of $411K per year
• Which means in the first four years, we'll actually be saving 11K while getting these upgrades
• For the last six years, we'll be $111K ahead of the game. 
• In other words, that's over $600K of savings over and above the project costing us a net zero

Seriously.  It sounds too good to be true, right?  But it isn't.  Other towns have used Honeywell's services with great success, including:

• Danbury (four different phases of work)
• Middletown
• Colchester
• Stratford

Finally...there is the What If Factor...

If this vote fails, Steve Vavrek will be under tremendous pressure to cut more significantly.  To move the mill rate at all means significant cuts.  Those cuts, in an already lean budget, mean loss of services, plain and simple.

If the budget goes down and there's another cut it's hard to imagine a scenario where Full Day K survives.  Which is doubly bad because the price tag for it this year is mitigated by the retirements of 15 teachers.  There will be no other year where the costs to implement are this low.  Which will mean it will be even harder to get this program in place next year or the year after, when the Common Core standards kick in. Which stinks for everyone because in the long run, Full Day K saves the entire town money over time with less intervention, increased literacy rates and even lower crime rates.

Since the BOE budget is already at 1.56 %, and 1.1% of that is contractual salary increases (aka "fixed costs"), there just isn't much room if a cut comes. Beyond full day K, you have staff cuts.   Many class sizes could increase to 23-26 in elementary grades, and 27-30 in secondary grades.   Quality of instruction will decrease.  Afterschool programs will also be in peril, because Mr. Agostine will try to stay away from anything that will hurt core academics.  Sports, drama, music will all be on the table as he tries to preserve what he can, where he can.

In other words, the What If scenario might be unpalatable enough to acknowledge that a yes vote is a better choice than further cuts.

As our fiscal watchdogs on the Board of Finance said:  "No one likes to see taxes go up. I believe the spending increases make sense and are necessary to continue to make Monroe a town we are all proud to call home."

Please go out and Vote YES twice tomorrow.  If the No votes win, all of Monroe will loses.